How can we assess the resilience of CIS economies against a backdrop of global uncertainty without trying to predict the unpredictable? The practical approach is to break external pressure down into three channels—oil, gold, and secondary effects via trading partners—and identify where it is most likely to surface: in the budget, the current account, inflation, or the exchange rate. Using Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan as examples, this framework highlights which domestic fault lines amplify or cushion external shocks—and which indicators provide early warning signals of a turning point.
For companies planning production, sourcing, exports, or investment in Turkey in 2025–2026, one question dominates: is the country entering a period of sustainable stabilization, or is the current calm merely temporary? According to Şevin Ekinci, 2026 may provide the answer. She explains which domestic indicators will determine whether the normalization holds, how the global economic environment is shifting, and why two specific risks could quickly reverse the trajectory.
