How can we assess the resilience of CIS economies against a backdrop of global uncertainty without trying to predict the unpredictable? The practical approach is to break external pressure down into three channels—oil, gold, and secondary effects via trading partners—and identify where it is most likely to surface: in the budget, the current account, inflation, or the exchange rate. Using Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan as examples, this framework highlights which domestic fault lines amplify or cushion external shocks—and which indicators provide early warning signals of a turning point.
