Exchange-rate volatility in Turkey after 2018 has become not an episodic shock but a persistent factor linked to the dynamics of banking margins. Once this relationship is measured and the influence of local and global factors is separated, it becomes a practical tool. The estimated sensitivity of margins to volatility can then be used as a reference parameter for Funds Transfer Pricing (FTP).
For companies planning production, sourcing, exports, or investment in Turkey in 2025–2026, one question dominates: is the country entering a period of sustainable stabilization, or is the current calm merely temporary? According to Şevin Ekinci, 2026 may provide the answer. She explains which domestic indicators will determine whether the normalization holds, how the global economic environment is shifting, and why two specific risks could quickly reverse the trajectory.
