Marcelo Carvalho

Marcelo Carvalho is a global macroeconomist with more than 30 years of experience across international financial institutions and investment banks. His expertise spans global macroeconomics, geopolitics, monetary policy, international capital flows, financial markets, and emerging economies.

Marcelo is currently a Senior Researcher at ODI Global in London, where he contributes to research and policy discussions on global macroeconomics, international trade, capital flows, geopolitical fragmentation, and economic resilience in emerging and developing economies. He also works as an independent global macroeconomist and speaker, engaging with institutional investors, corporations, and senior executives on how economic policy and geopolitical developments affect currencies, interest rates, and market risk.

Previously, Marcelo spent more than 14 years at BNP Paribas. From 2022 to 2024, he served as Global Head of Economics at BNP Paribas CIB, leading a global team of economists across Europe, Asia, and the Americas covering both developed and emerging markets. Before that, as Head of Global Emerging Markets Research, he coordinated economists and strategists across emerging markets, providing macroeconomic forecasts, analysis, and market views for investors and the bank’s trading desks. From 2010 to 2018, he headed the bank’s Latin America Economic Research.

Before joining BNP Paribas, Marcelo held Chief Economist for Brazil roles at Morgan Stanley, ING, Itaú-Unibanco, Bank of America, and J.P. Morgan. From 2005 to 2007, he was an Economist at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, DC, focusing on macroeconomic developments and financial markets in emerging economies and contributing to official IMF missions to Brazil.

Marcelo is a frequent speaker at international conferences and executive events and has delivered lectures and participated in programmes at London Business School, University College London, the London School of Economics, Bayes Business School, and SOAS. He also contributes perspectives on global macroeconomic and market developments to CNBC, Bloomberg, and Reuters.

Marcelo holds a PhD in Economics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, as well as Master’s and Bachelor’s degrees in Economics from the University of São Paulo.